Why the elections in the Netherlands are not just cause for celebration
Dear friends!
The results of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands initially put me in a good mood yesterday. D66, a social-liberal party, won, relegating the far-right Geert Wilders and his PVV to second place. For a long time, the polls had predicted a victory for Wilders. Instead, the PVV lost 11 seats out of a total of 26.
But if you look beyond the headlines and initial analyses, the joy over the result is clouded and the analysis becomes more complicated:
- Clouding: Wilders loses, but the far-right camp remains stable
Due to the lack of a threshold for entering parliament, a total of 15 parties are represented in the Second Chamber of the Dutch Parliament. Looking at the distribution of seats among the far-right parties, it becomes clear that although Wilders’ PVV lost, the right-wing populists of JA21 and FvD (led by a well-known conspiracy theorist) gained significantly. Even though the fourth party, the BBB, has lost seats, this far-right camp still holds 46 seats out of a total of 150. In the 2023 election, it had 48 (see table). This is anything but a disenchantment, as Nadia Pantel writes in SPIEGEL.
Table: Distribution of seats among far-right parties in the Second Chamber of the Dutch Parliament
Many other analyses focus solely on Wilders and conclude that his participation in government and its failure (the coalition left Wilders with much fanfare because the partners allegedly did not want to go along with his right-wing migration policy) showed voters that when right-wingers govern, they do not solve problems.
However, a look at the political camp reveals something else: since almost all of the larger parties ruled out a renewed coalition with Wilders, but not with the other far-right parties, former PVV voters strategically shifted their votes so as not to waste them. So the cordon sanitaire works, but it is of little help if it is full of holes and can be circumvented. This shows that right-wing extremists are not being discredited, but rather that their ideas are being normalised through participation in government and their camp is being consolidated.
- Reason for hope: progressives can win
But even if the far-right camp remains stable, the election results also give cause for hope. The victory of the social-liberal D66 shows that elections can be won with a positive, progressive message. The party has focused on the housing crisis in the Netherlands, including with a proposal to build ten new cities. The party is pro-European and pro-climate action, making it pretty much the opposite of Wilders’ PVV.
Its leading candidate, 38-year-old Rob Jetten, has become the frontrunner with a modified Yes We Can slogan, just like Barack Obama once did. He could now become the first openly gay prime minister of the Netherlands. This is a strong signal at a time when queer rights are being called into question in many places.
Conclusion: progressive election campaigns work. But disenchantment through participation in government does not.
What does this mean for the next election campaigns in Germany and Europe? I think we Greens should be bolder, confidently putting social issues such as housing at the forefront and moving from a defensive stance to a positive vision of the future. Yes, we must defend our democracy, online and offline, because that is how we can, for example, prevent right-wing extremists from being favoured by algorithms. But defence alone is not enough. We need to be bold and go on the offensive, preferably with young, charismatic faces.
I think that’s good news for the weekend.
Best regards,
Alexandra Geese